Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) Monitoring Update, January 10, 2025
Kīlauea, one of the most active volcanoes in the world, is currently under a Volcano Alert Level: WATCH and Aviation Color Code: ORANGE, as ongoing observations suggest the potential for renewed eruptive activity. The eruption that began at Halemaʻumaʻu Crater on December 23, 2024, paused on January 3, 2025, but continuing inflation at the summit indicates magma is still accumulating beneath the surface, raising the likelihood of another eruption in the coming days.
Recent Eruptive Activity and Episodic Eruptions
The recent eruption of Kīlauea within Halemaʻumaʻu has brought a return of an eruptive style not seen in many years. The eruption included three distinct episodes of lava fountaining, each separated by pauses in activity. The third pause is currently ongoing, and scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) are closely examining data and historical patterns to predict what might happen next.
Episodes at Kīlauea are typically marked by the onset of lava fountains, driven by the rapid expansion of gas within fresh lava. This fountaining is usually preceded by sluggish, degassed lava flows. When dense, degassed material is ejected from the vent, it allows gas-rich magma to rise quickly and erupt in fountains. These episodes are followed by rapid deflation of the source magma chamber, with pauses in eruption often leading to inflation of the summit as pressure builds in the magma chambers beneath the surface.
Episodic eruptions of this nature have occurred before on Kīlauea, including during the 1983 Puʻuʻōʻō eruption, which featured 44 episodes, and the 1969 Maunaulu eruption with 12 episodes. The 1959 Kīlauea Iki eruption also followed this episodic pattern, with 17 episodes of eruptive activity. While the current eruption is paused, persistent nighttime glow from the vent and ongoing strong degassing indicate that molten magma remains within 150–300 feet (50–100 meters) of the surface.
Signs of a Potential Restart
The main feature of episodic eruptions is their repeatability, which allows for the identification of key patterns. Following the first and second episodes of the recent eruption, inflation was observed in the summit region, with tiltmeters near Uēkahuna bluff recording 6 microradians of ground tilt. This tilt is a sign that pressure has been building beneath the surface, signaling that the eruption could resume when enough pressure accumulates.
The most recent inflationary tilt recorded on January 8, 2025, suggests that the necessary pressure for an eruption restart could soon be reached. While the current pause in activity allows the lava within the vent to cool, ongoing degassing and the persistent glow at the vent continue to indicate that the eruption is far from over.
What’s Likely to Happen Next?
While it is impossible to predict the exact timing of the next eruptive episode, data from the tiltmeters and ongoing inflation suggest that the volcano could experience another lava fountain between January 8 and 13, 2025. The system appears to be approaching the pressure levels required to force magma to the surface, which could initiate a new episode of eruption.
However, there is also a chance that the eruption may not restart if the vent closes off and the molten material cools. If the vent remains open and the inflation rate continues, it seems likely that Kīlauea could soon see another episode of lava fountaining, consistent with the episodic nature of past eruptions.
Hazards and Ongoing Monitoring
While the eruption is currently confined to the summit region within a closed area of Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park, volcanic gas emissions, particularly sulfur dioxide (SO2), remain a significant hazard. These emissions contribute to vog (volcanic smog), which can affect air quality and pose health risks, especially for sensitive individuals. The spread of vog depends on wind patterns, with trade winds carrying emissions southwest and Kona winds potentially concentrating them on the eastern side of the island.
The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory continues to monitor Kīlauea with a dense network of instruments, including tiltmeters, seismic sensors, and gas analyzers. Real-time data from webcams and periodic overflights are helping scientists track changes in volcanic activity and assess hazards. HVO is in constant communication with Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park and local civil defense authorities to keep the public informed and prepared.
For More Information:
As Kīlauea remains in an active state, scientists are watching closely for any signs of increased activity. The public is encouraged to stay informed and follow all advisories issued by the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory.